PRESENTED BY the Stop The HIT Coalition

Good morning! Hard to believe it is November. Counting today, there are SIX days until Election Day. Here’s your Daily News for Thursday, November 1.

1. Fall Squall coming through.

• A line of severe thunderstorms is moving across the state this morning.
• It’s one of those fall squalls that can quickly produce tornadoes, and the threat exists from Mobile to Huntsville.
• It’s not just tornadoes, though, but microbursts and even straight line winds of up to 70mph.
• See the latest radar images and county tornado watches, with links to forecasts and NWS models HERE.
• Pay attention to warnings, and be safe!

2. House ratings.

• There are 50 competitive races for the Alabama House of Representatives this year. And by competitive, I mean more than one person is running.
• Most are either solidly Republican or solidly Democrat, based either on the demographics of the district, the popularity of the incumbent, or a little bit of both.
• But that’s not the case for every district!
• There are plenty of seats up for grabs in the House.
• I made a chart rating each of the competitive seats on a scale of Solid Republican, Leans Republican, Toss-Up, Leans Democrat, Solid Democrat. Take a look HERE.
• Thank you to everyone who contributed information in helping me develop these ratings.
• See something off? Did I get it wrong? Shoot me a note and tell me if there is information I need to know that would swing a race into a different column.
• I’m working on one for Senate races so send me what you have on those, too.

A Message from the Stop The HIT Coalition

• Did you know Alabama small businesses and middle-class families will be hit with a new tax on January 1, 2020?
• Absent immediate Senate action, the 2020 Health Insurance Tax (HIT) will begin driving up the cost of care for hardworking Alabamians by as much as $450 in 2020.
• Senator Doug Jones can help address skyrocketing healthcare costs by co-sponsoring bipartisan legislation (S. 3063) to suspend the Health Insurance Tax in 2020.
• Ask Senator Jones to stop the HIT on Alabama small businesses and hardworking families.

3. Marshall wants SCOTUS to rule on abortion law.

• In 2016, Montgomery-based Federal Judge Myron Thompson ruled that an Alabama law banning dismemberment abortions was unconstitutional.
• Since nearly all abortions in the 2nd trimester are D&E procedures (something I didn’t know), such a ban would essentially take away women’s right to get an abortion, Thompson ruled.
• In August, the 11th Circuit upheld Thompson’s ruling. But in doing so, Appellate Judges Ed Carnes and Joel Dubina said that while they disagreed with Supreme Court precedent, they were bound by it.
• Carnes wrote a 38-page opinion tearing into the Court’s abortion precedent in graphic detail.
• Dubina wrote a short but biting concurrence quoting a Clarence Thomas and Antonin Scalia opinion that “the Court’s abortion jurisprudence, including Casey and Roe v. Wade, has no basis in the Constitution.”
• All that sets up a potential showdown at next rung up the judicial ladder: the U.S. Supreme Court. Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall filed notice this week of his intent to appeal the lower court’s decision.
• “The constitutionality of a state ban on dismemberment abortion is an important question of national significance. Litigation over similar abortion laws is pending in several other courts,” he wrote.
• Who knows whether the Supreme Court will take up this appeal and/or the others like it from Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Kansas. After the bitter confirmation fight over Justice Brett Kavanaugh, you could easily see how they might want to let a little time pass before diving right into Roe.
• But if the now-conservative Court does want to take up states’ rights to regulate abortion, the 11th Circuit has served up the case and Alabama will be right in the middle of it.

4. Aderholt pitches farm relief, stumps for GOP hopefuls.

• Congressman Robert Aderholt is teaming up with his Democratic counterpart on Agriculture Appropriations to convince their colleagues to fund additional disaster aid for farmers.
• Aderholt and Rep. Sanford Bishop from neighboring Georgia co-wrote a letter to fellow appropriators saying farmers are reeling from recent natural disasters, and that’s on top of some commodity price drops.
• While playing bi-partisan ball to help farmers recover, Aderholt is also stumping for GOP congressional hopefuls.
• He was recently in Minnesota campaigning for  Jim Hagedorn and Tom Emmer.
• Those districts are farm country, so it’s a big deal to have the chairman of the committee that funds Agriculture come support you.
• It looks like they had fun, though. Aderholt got a turn at the wheel of a harvester bringing in the grain crop while Emmert drove the grain cart beside him.
• Read more from Caroline Beck and watch the video HERE.

5. News Briefs.

• On the question of what will happen next for Attorney General Jeff Sessions, Wall Street Journal reporter Sadie Gurman got clever and went to Mobile to ask some of the friends who know him best.
• Sitting down with Conrad Pierce and Bob Sharp in a Cracker Barrel, Gurman got these “Friends of Jeff” to open up about their conversations with the AG.
• Their quotes are really something:
• “I try to reassure him we’re backing him, we admire him, and we love and care about him.”
• “I don’t want to put him on the spot. I don’t think he needs that… And I don’t know what he would tell me, anyway.”
• “You’d feel the same way if your best friend was being criticized.”
• Gurman’s full story is really good and well worth your time this morning.
• It’s one of those “I wish I had written that” stories.

• Kim Chandler continues her excellent campaign coverage this morning with a story on the race for Alabama Auditor.
• The race a rematch between a Republican incumbent who has used the office to decry state corruption — and sometimes draw controversy himself — and a Democratic challenger who points to her background as an auditor.
• Republican Auditor Jim Zeigler faces Democratic nominee Miranda Joseph in the Nov. 6 election.
• Full story HERE.

• President Donald Trump says the number of military troops deployed to the U.S.-Mexican border could reach 15,000 — roughly double the number the Pentagon said it currently plans for a mission whose dimensions are shifting daily.
• The Pentagon says “more than 7,000” troops were being sent to the southwest border to support the Customs and Border Protection agents. Officials said that number could reach a maximum of about 8,000 under present plans.
• The troop numbers have been changing at a dizzying pace, with Trump drawing a hard line on immigration in the lead-up to the midterm elections.
• He’s also doubling down on using an executive order to end birthright citizenship.
• Read the full story HERE.

Headlines.

Front Pages (images link to newspaper websites, which you should visit and patronize)