Cygnal polling shows tight races for midterms

Cygnal polling shows tight races for midterms

By WILL WHATLEY, Alabama Daily News

MONTGOMERY, Ala. – While Alabama’s election proves to be a low-key affair, contests in neighboring states are highly-competitive with major implications hanging in the balance.

Montgomery-based survey research firm Cygnal recently released polling results for some high-profile races in battleground states the upcoming midterm elections.

Florida

In Florida, interest in the midterm elections are very high according to Cygnal’s polling. When participants were asked how interested they were on a scale from 0 to 10, 84% rated their interest as being a 9 or 10.

Florida gubernatorial candidates Republican Ron DeSantis and Democrat Andrew Gillum are in a statistical tie, with DeSantis leading Gillum 47.3% to 46.7%. Less than 2% of voters are undecided.

The race for one of Florida’s U.S. Senate seats is also neck and neck, with incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson edging out former governor Republican Rick Scott 50%-48%, well inside the margin for error.

“There is a hyper-partisan environment in Florida right now,” said Brent Buchanan, Cygnal’s founder and president. “Despite that fact, DeSantis and Nelson are both overperforming the generic ballot. Republicans should feel encouraged about where these two key races are headed.”

The margin of error for the Florida polls is +/- 4.40%. The polling was conducted October 27-29 with 495 likely general election voters.

Full Cygnal Florida Polling Memo

Cygnal’s Florida Top Lines

Georgia

Like Florida, Georgia’s gubernatorial race is also polling close. Georgia Secretary of State Republican Brian Kemp leads former Georgia House of Representatives minority leader Democrat Stacey Abrams 49% to 47%, with 4% of respondents saying they planned on voting for Libertarian Ted Metz.

Cygnal’s survey was conducted October 28-30 with 504 likely general election voters, giving the polling a margin of error of +/- 4.36%.

Full Cygnal Georgia Polling Memo

Full Cygnal Georgia Top Lines

Tennessee

In the Tennessee governor’s race, Republican Bill Lee holds a commanding 23-point lead over Democrat Karl Dean.
“Bill Lee is immensely popular with Tennessee voters, with a net +60 favorability” said Brent Buchanan, Cygnal’s president and founder. “If they know what’s good for them, down-ballot Republicans will consider aligning themselves closely with Lee in the closing days of the campaign.”

Tennessee’s race for U.S. Senate isn’t as tight, as Republican Marsha Blackburn leads Democrat Phil Bredesen 51% to 46%.

“Blackburn has a good lead, but she isn’t in the territory of Lee in part due to her inability to retain partisan support at the same level Lee does on the gubernatorial ballot,” said Josh Pendergrass, Tennessee native and Cygnal’s director of client strategy. “She needs to shore up her support with core Republicans and increase her support among voters with a favorable opinion of President Trump and of gubernatorial candidate Bill Lee.”

The poll was conducted October 26-27 among 497 likely general election voters.

Cygnal’s Full Tennessee Polling Memo

Cygnal’s Full Tennessee Top Lines

Missouri

The polling for the Missouri race for U.S. Senate also shows a Republican in the lead as Josh Hawley leads Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill 49% to 46%, with 3% of voters undecided.

“People won’t find many surprises in the results of this poll; Hawley continues to lead and it appears to have grown compared to previous polls,” said Buchanan. “With voter enthusiasm so high, this race is going to still come down to the success of each campaign’s ‘get out the vote’ efforts.”

The survey was conducted October 26-27 among 501 likely voters, giving the poll a margin of error of +/- 4.38%.

Cygnal’s Full Missouri Top Lines

Cygnal’s Full Missouri Polling Memo