New ADN/Gray TV poll shows tightening Senate race, likely runoff

New ADN/Gray TV poll shows tightening Senate race, likely runoff

By TODD STACY, Alabama Daily News

MONTGOMERY, Ala. – A new Alabama Daily News / Gray Television poll shows a tightening race for the United States Senate with the top three candidates all with a chance of making a likely runoff.

Under Alabama election law, if no candidate wins a majority of votes, a runoff election is held between the top two vote earners.

The survey, conducted by Cygnal this week, showed Katie Britt maintaining her lead at 30.8%, but slipping slightly since the same poll was taken ten days earlier. Mo Brooks gained another six points since the last poll and is now at 28.5%, within the margin of error of Britt. Mike Durant recovered slightly to pick up about three points at 24.3% after his dramatic slide in the last poll.

Just 10% of voters remain undecided.

CandidateMay 16 2022May 6 2022March 2022August 2021
Katie Britt30.8%32.0%28.4%17.7%
Mo Brooks28.5%22.5%16.1%40.8%
Mike Durant24.3%21.4%34.6%-
Someone else6.4%8.5%6.5%-
Undecided10.0%15.5%14.4%31.8%

Brooks’ resurgence is significant. The Huntsville congressman was all but counted out in March after his numbers slipped into the teens and he lost the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. Since then, Brooks has gained 12 points and is well positioned to make the runoff.

Also significant is the change in the candidates’ favorability ratings. The percentage that view Britt favorably dipped six points since the May 6 poll, no doubt a product of the negative attack ads launched against her. Durant also slipped six points and is now underwater with more voters having an unfavorable view than a favorable one. Brooks’ favorability increased by five points to 47.4%, which is higher than the 43.7% of voters who view him unfavorably.

John Rogers of Cygnal spoke to those significant changes.

“Both Durant’s and Britt’s negatives are going up, which means their net images are now close to Brooks’s near-waterline mark. Durant got a bit of a free pass at the beginning of the race, but that has changed over the last few months and it is starting to have an effect,” Rogers said.

“Brooks is getting a cleaner plurality now of Trump Republicans—he’s gone from garnering 26% of self-identified Trump Republicans up to 35%—and that is driving his rebound from March. Britt has held steady on the ballot and is in the best position to capture one of the two runoff positions.“

The following is a list of names of various people who may have been mentioned in the news recently. For each one, please indicate if you have heard of the person, and if you have, whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them. If you haven’t heard of a name, choose so. 

CandidateFavUnfavNo OpinionNever heard ofNET Fav
Katie Britt44.6%42.8%10.2%2.4%+1.8%
Mike Durant39.1%45.2%11.7%4.0%-6.1%
Mo Brooks47.4%43.7%8.2%0.8%+2.7%

Same question from the May 6 poll

CandidateFavUnfavNo OpinionNever heard ofNET Fav
Katie Britt50.736.0%11.6%1.7%+14.7%
Mike Durant45.6%37.0%13.0%4.4%+8.5%
Mo Brooks42.1%47.5%9.3%1.2%-5.4%

The recent poll was conducted by Cygnal on behalf of Alabama Daily News and Gray Television. It surveyed 634 likely Republican primary voters May 15 and 16 and has a margin for error of +/- 3.88%.