New poll: Tuberville leads Jones going into final week

New poll: Tuberville leads Jones going into final week

By TODD STACY, Alabama Daily News

MONTGOMERY, Ala. – A new poll shows Republican Senate candidate Tommy Tuberville leading Democratic U.S. Sen. Doug Jones by double digits going into the final week of campaigning before Election Day on Nov. 3.

In a recent survey of likely Alabama general election voters, Cygnal found that 54.7% of voters were either definitely or probably voting for Tuberville while 41.1% were either definitely or probably voting for Jones. A small percentage, 4.2%, remain undecided in the race, the survey showed.

Cygnal is a Republican polling firm that has not worked for any candidate in the race.

Ballot Test

“If the general election for U.S. Senate was held today, and you had to make a choice, would you vote for Tommy Tuberville, the Republican; or Doug Jones, the Democrat?” 

CandidateDefinitelyProbablyTotal
Tommy Tuberville50.7%4%54.7%
Doug Jones38.9%2.2%41.1%
Undecided4.2%

The ballot test for Jones and Tuberville tracked closely with party-line voting attitudes in the state.

The poll also surveyed Alabama voters on which party they would be supporting when voting for their member of Congress. When asked, 55.4% said they would definitely or probably be voting for the Republican candidate while 38.2% said they would definitely or probably be voting for the Democratic candidate.

The survey showed little crossover voting in the Senate race. Just 5.4% of those identifying as Republicans said they would vote for Jones while 1.1% of Democrats said they would support Tuberville. Those identifying as independents were split with 50% going for Jones and 45.3% going for Tuberville.

Cygnal’s CEO and founder Brent Buchanan said he sees Jones 2017 special election win as a “fluke occurrence” that is not likely to be repeated.

“Republicans have a 17-point edge on the generic ballot in Alabama and with President Trump up for re-election, Jones doesn’t have a plausible pathway to victory,” he said.

The survey also tested approval ratings for some of the state’s top politicians. It showed that 58.8% of voters had a favorable option of Gov. Kay Ivey with 26% having an unfavorable opinion. For Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth, 21.3% of voters have a favorable opinion with 11.8% unfavorable and 66.9% either having no opinion or having not heard of him. Attorney General Steve Marshall was seen favorably by 18.1% of the state voters, with 10.9 having an unfavorable view and 61% either having no opinion or having not heard of him.

Former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore, who recently ran for Senate again and frequently injects himself into the state’s political discourse, carries a heavily unfavorable rating among voters, the survey showed. A full 50.7% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Moore while 22.2% see him favorably.

Favorability

“Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of…”

FavorableUnfavorableNo OpinionNever Heard of
Kay Ivey58.8%29.8%8.3%3.1%
Will Ainsworth21.3%11.8%28.2%38.7%
Steve Marshall18.1%10.9%25.9%45.1%
John Merrill18.8%9.7%25.7%45.8%
Roy Moore22.2%50.7%16.9%10.2%

The survey was conducted Oct. 21-23 among 645 likely general election voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.86%.  Known registered voters were interviewed via live phone calls, interactive voice response and text message invitation in Cygnal’s multi-mode survey method.

Cygnal, the survey research firm founded by Brent Buchanan, in 2018 named the top Republican pollster by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight and the most accurate polling and research firm nationally by The New York Times.

See the top line survey results HERE and see the cross tabs via Cygnal’s website HERE.